Vietnam’s inexperienced espresso manufacturing is forecast to rise 2.5% to 32.5 million 60-kilogram luggage of inexperienced bean equal in market 12 months 2026/27, as excessive costs from 2024 and 2025 inspired expanded robusta manufacturing, in line with the newest USDA Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) annual report.
The report forecasts exports rising 1.6% to twenty-eight.95 million 60-kilogram luggage, whereas home consumption is predicted to rise 2% to five million 60-kilogram luggage. Falling costs from latest peaks have additionally pushed farmers, merchants and exporters to launch shares, supporting near-term export flows.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Manufacturing Progress Led by Robusta
The 2026/27 forecast of 32.5 million luggage would put Vietnam’s manufacturing nicely above the 31.7 million luggage estimated for 2025/26 and 29 million luggage in 2024/25. The brand new forecast contains 31.4 million luggage of robusta and 1.1 million luggage of arabica.
Robusta manufacturing is forecast to rise 3% from 30.5 million luggage in 2025/26, whereas arabica manufacturing is forecast to fall from 1.2 million to 1.1 million luggage. Robusta harvested space is forecast to rise to 644,000 hectares, up 2.2% from 630,200 hectares the earlier 12 months.
The Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Setting, often called MAE, estimated whole espresso space at about 730,000 hectares. FAS mentioned replanted and renewed areas from the ministry’s 2021-2023 espresso replanting program are coming into steady, high-yield manufacturing, serving to carry output.
Growing old Bushes and Increased Prices Stay Issues
The Western Highlands Agriculture and Forestry Science Institute, a Vietnamese agricultural analysis physique, estimates that about 30% of the nation’s espresso space is 20 years or older and desires replanting or renewal to take care of productiveness and high quality.
Excessive costs have inspired extra manufacturing, however the report additionally factors to dangers from overuse of fertilizer and irrigation. Native farmers reported fertilizer and gasoline prices rising about 30% from the earlier 12 months, whereas labor prices rose 33%.
Climate is one other concern. FAS mentioned precipitation within the Central Highlands espresso provinces fell under regular from January to March 2026, whereas citing earlier U.S. local weather forecasts displaying elevated odds of El Niño situations rising in mid-2026 and lasting via the top of the 12 months.
Exports Rise as Shares Are Launched
Exports are forecast at 28.95 million luggage in 2026/27, up from 28.5 million luggage in 2025/26 and 25.2 million luggage in 2024/25. Inexperienced espresso exports are forecast at 25.4 million luggage, whereas soluble and roasted exports are forecast at 3.55 million luggage.
Vietnam exported about 15.7 million luggage within the first half of 2025/26, up 27.5% from the identical interval a 12 months earlier. Main conventional markets led the best way, together with Germany, Italy, the USA, Spain, Russia and Japan, whereas rising Asian markets akin to India, Cambodia, Thailand and China additionally elevated purchases.
Robusta Costs Fall From Latest Peaks
Vietnam’s common export worth reached $5,127 per metric ton within the first half of 2025/26, down 9% from the identical interval a 12 months earlier. In March 2026, the export worth was $4,553 per metric ton, down 22% from March 2025.
Home robusta costs within the Central Highlands averaged about VND 102,800 per kilogram within the first half of 2025/26, down 16% from the identical interval a 12 months earlier. FAS mentioned brokers, middlemen and exporters are transferring shares sooner amid concern that costs could fall additional, whereas some farmers proceed holding espresso for higher phrases.
High quality and Home Demand Develop
FAS mentioned Vietnam is shifting from a volume-focused exporter towards higher-quality and extra traceable espresso. About 40% of the nation’s espresso space has sustainability certifications akin to Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, 4C and UTZ, whereas MAE and exporters are working towards European Union deforestation regulation compliance.
Home consumption is forecast to rise to five million luggage, supported by a rising center class, tourism, house brewing, specialty espresso and younger shoppers in search of premium robusta, arabica and trendy brewing codecs.
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