Uganda’s inexperienced espresso manufacturing is forecast to rise 0.9% to 7.16 million 60-kilogram baggage in market 12 months 2026/27, as excessive costs have inspired extra planted space and extra robusta manufacturing, in line with the newest USDA International Agricultural Service (FAS) annual report.
The report forecasts exports rising 1.9% to six.83 million 60-kilogram baggage. Home consumption is forecast to rise 1.5% to 335,000 60-kilogram baggage, supported by city demand, native roasting and hospitality-sector development.
Regardless of the regular development, Ugandan authorities have signaled a long-term funding shift away from inexperienced espresso exports towards value-added exports resembling roasted and soluble coffees.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Modest Manufacturing Progress
The 2026/27 manufacturing forecast would put Uganda barely above the 7.095 million baggage estimated for 2025/26 and the 6.7 million baggage estimated for 2024/25. Robusta is predicted to account for six.025 million baggage, whereas arabica manufacturing is forecast at 1.135 million baggage.
Robusta is grown primarily within the central area, whereas manufacturing is increasing northward as a consequence of funding and out there land. Arabica is grown primarily in higher-altitude areas within the east and west.
Planted space is forecast to rise to 595,000 hectares, up from 590,000 hectares in 2025/26, partly as a consequence of a gradual shift from timber manufacturing to espresso within the Masaka area. Harvested space is forecast to rise to 580,000 hectares.
Comparatively Excessive Costs Driving Enlargement
Ugandan espresso costs stay effectively above latest norms. Export costs rose from $2.63 per kilogram in 2023/24 to $4.64 in 2024/25, earlier than easing barely to $4.51 in 2025/26.
FAS stated the high-price setting displays tight international provide and has helped help farm enlargement. Smallholder farmers, usually farming 0.5 to 2.5 hectares, account for about 90% of Uganda’s espresso manufacturing. Medium and large-scale estates account for the remaining 10%.
Enter prices and pests stay key limits. Fertilizer use is growing however stays low, particularly amongst smallholders, whereas costs for frequent nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers have been rising. Espresso berry borers and leaf rust additionally stay considerations amongst farmers.
Exports Rise as EU Dominates
Uganda exports greater than 98% of its espresso as inexperienced espresso. The 2026/27 export forecast of 6.83 million baggage displays sturdy international demand, particularly from the European Union, the US and rising Asian markets.
The EU stays Uganda’s dominant purchaser, accounting for about 73% of exports in 2024/25. Morocco and the US every accounted for about 6%, adopted by China at 4%. FAS stated Morocco and China are gaining significance as Uganda expands past conventional markets.
FAS additionally revised Uganda’s 2025/26 export estimate upward to six.7 million baggage, citing further shipments to non-reporting locations, significantly Sudan.
Coverage Pushes Worth Addition
Uganda is planning a gradual shift away from reliance on unprocessed inexperienced espresso exports, with a deal with roasted and soluble espresso as a part of a broader value-addition technique. Officers indicated the transition will probably be gradual, fairly than an instantaneous ban on inexperienced espresso exports, as native processing capability and infrastructure develop.
The report additionally famous that the Uganda Espresso Improvement Authority was folded into the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Trade and Fisheries following passage of the Nationwide Espresso Modification Invoice. The change moved espresso regulation, extension, high quality management and export promotion into the ministry, with combined early suggestions from stakeholders.
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