Kenyaβs inexperienced espresso manufacturing is forecast to rise practically 12% to 950,000 60-kilogram luggage in market 12 months 2026/27, with expanded harvested space and improved farm care following two years of excessive costs, in line with the newest USDAΒ International Agricultural Service annual report.
[Note: This is part of anΒ ongoing series of DCN storiesΒ that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Manufacturing Rebounds With Higher Crop Care
The 2026/27 forecast would convey Kenyaβs manufacturing again to the identical degree estimated for 2024/25, following a decrease 2025/26 estimate of 850,000 luggage. The report attributes the anticipated rebound to farmers reinvesting after two years of favorable costs, permitting for extra constant fertilizer use and higher pest and illness management.
FAS mentioned farms in the important thing Mount Kenya area flowered strongly after a extreme drought that lasted into March 2026. Harvested space is forecast to rise barely to 106,000 hectares as current plantings mature.
Kenya can be pursuing a espresso enlargement program within the Central, Jap and Rift Valley areas via the government-supported New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, which makes use of a revolving fund to supply farmers with seedlings and fertilizers. The report mentioned surging demand for planting materials has created a backlog.Β
Land Stress Eases, for Now
FAS pointed to a short lived slowdown within the conversion of espresso farms into residential developments close to Nairobi, Thika, Kiambu and Nyeri. The report mentioned espresso uprooting in peri-urban areas has slowed over the previous two years as Kenyaβs actual property market has stagnated.
With out a clear land-use coverage defending arable land, trade analysts cited within the report mentioned the slowdown could also be momentary and will reverse if espresso costs fall.
New Regulation Reshapes Oversight
Kenyaβs espresso sector can be coming into a brand new regulatory interval following the March 2026 enactment of the Espresso Act. The legislation shifts regulatory and industrial oversight from the Agriculture and Meals Authority to the re-established Espresso Board of Kenya.
The legislation additionally creates an impartial Espresso Analysis and Coaching Institute, separating it from the broader Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Analysis Group. It codifies reforms underway since 2022, together with adjustments to the Nairobi Espresso Change and the creation of a digital direct settlement system designed to maneuver purchaser funds extra rapidly and transparently to farmers.
Exports Rise as U.S. Stays High Market
Kenyaβs espresso exports are forecast to rise from 840,000 luggage in 2025/26 to 940,000 luggage in 2026/27. Inexperienced espresso is anticipated to account for 900,000 luggage of the full, with roasted espresso exports at 30,000 luggage and soluble exports at 10,000 luggage.
America remained Kenyaβs largest export vacation spot in 2024/25, accounting for 17.2% of export quantity, adopted by Belgium at 15.5% and Germany at 12.7%. The report mentioned January 2026 export volumes spiked to a file 231,561 luggage, reflecting retroactive duty-free market entry to america beneath the African Development and Alternative Act and a one-off cargo to Sudan.
Costs on the Nairobi Espresso Change fell to about $268.77 per 50-kilogram bag in April 2026, down 28.4% from October 2025, as public sale volumes elevated. Ending shares are forecast to rise 23.7% to 120,000 luggage, primarily held by cooperative societies.
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