Indonesia’s inexperienced espresso manufacturing is forecast to fall 8% to 11.38 million 60-kilogram luggage in market 12 months 2026/27, with extreme rainfall hurting flowering and fruit growth in key robusta areas of southern Sumatra and Java, in accordance with the newest USDA Overseas Agricultural Service annual report.
The report forecasts inexperienced espresso exports falling 11% to 7 million 60-kilogram luggage as diminished output and regular home demand restrict provide. Home consumption is forecast to rise barely to 4.83 million 60-kilogram luggage.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Manufacturing Drops
The 2026/27 manufacturing forecast contains 10 million luggage of robusta and 1.38 million luggage of arabica. That may put whole output under the 12.37 million luggage estimated for 2025/26, when robusta manufacturing is estimated at 11 million luggage.
FAS stated mid-2025 extreme rainfall disrupted flowering in robusta areas of southern Sumatra, whereas farmers in Central Java reported heavy rains that triggered flowers to fall and pollen to scrub away, limiting pollination and fruit growth.
Espresso space is forecast to stay steady at about 1.2 million hectares, with no main replanting or growth packages lately. Sumatra accounts for about 60% of Indonesia’s espresso space, whereas southern Sumatra — together with Lampung, South Sumatra and Bengkulu — represents roughly 80% to 90% of nationwide robusta output.
Floods Damage Arabica
FAS revised Indonesia’s 2025/26 arabica manufacturing right down to 1.37 million luggage from 1.45 million luggage, following flooding and landslides tied to Tropical Storm Sinyar in late November 2025 in Aceh and North Sumatra. Some arabica plantations reportedly sustained injury and may have two to a few years to get well.
The report additionally cited native authorities figures displaying a minimum of 12,000 hectares of espresso plantations in Aceh have been broken, whereas floods and landslides destroyed greater than 800 bridges and roads throughout Sumatra. As of April 2026, infrastructure restoration remained incomplete, preserving transport prices elevated.
The Indonesian meteorological company BMKG projected a drier and longer 2026 dry season, pushed by a weak El Niño anticipated to strengthen later within the 12 months. FAS stated El Niño situations sometimes elevate the danger of extreme drought, which may disrupt flowering and cut back yields.
Home Demand Holds Regular
Home consumption is forecast at 4.83 million luggage in 2026/27, up 20,000 luggage from 2025/26. The forecast contains 3.28 million luggage of roasted-and-ground espresso and 1.55 million luggage of soluble espresso.
FAS stated roasteries and processors proceed to help demand, though increased inexperienced espresso costs since 2024 have squeezed roaster margins and pushed some shoppers towards low- and medium-grade coffees. Kopi susu, or espresso with milk, stays a preferred entry-level drink throughout espresso retailers and ready-to-drink merchandise.
Exports Fall From Recovered 2025/26 Ranges
Inexperienced espresso exports are forecast to fall to 7 million luggage in 2026/27, down from 7.84 million luggage in 2025/26. Complete exports, together with soluble and roasted espresso, are forecast to say no to eight.05 million luggage from 8.84 million luggage.
Shipments to Europe rose 72% to 2.4 million luggage in 2025/26, led by renewed demand from Belgium and Germany, aggressive pricing and preparedness for the European Union Deforestation Regulation. The USA ranked third in 2025/26 at 797,000 luggage and stays amongst Indonesia’s high 5 vacation spot markets. Shipments to the US sometimes encompass 60% to 80% arabica inexperienced beans, in accordance with FAS.
Ending shares are forecast to fall 11% to 671,000 luggage as decrease manufacturing meets regular home and export demand.
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