Mexicoโs espresso manufacturing is forecast to rise 1% to 4.14 million 60-kilogram luggage in market 12 months 2026/27, pushed by expanded robusta manufacturing, improved farm administration and continued funding after two years of robust costs, in accordance with the newest USDA International Agricultural Service annual report.
[Note: This is part of anย ongoing series of DCN storiesย that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Manufacturing Progress
The 2026/27 manufacturing forecast totals 4.135 million 60-kilogram luggage, together with 3.575 million luggage of arabica and 560,000 luggage of robusta. That might put whole manufacturing above the 4.08 million luggage estimated for 2025/26 and the three.93 million luggage estimated for 2024/25.
FAS mentioned Mexicoโs modest manufacturing improve is being pushed partly by robusta, which is gaining floor due to its illness resistance, suitability for lower-altitude climates and demand from giant soluble espresso processors.
Chiapas, Veracruz and Puebla account for greater than 80% of Mexicoโs espresso manufacturing. Chiapas is forecast to stay the highest producing state by quantity, whereas Puebla is anticipated to put up the best yields, supported by favorable soils, infrastructure close to main cities and funding in espresso leaf rust-resistant crops.
Costs Assist Farm Funding
Espresso costs have fallen from 2025 peaks however stay effectively above historic ranges. The report cited Worldwide Espresso Group knowledge displaying arabica costs averaged $3.31 per pound in March 2026, about 40% above the 10-year common.
That has allowed some producers to reinvest in farm administration, improve plant density, apply extra inputs and enhance high quality management. FAS mentioned the continued adoption of espresso leaf rust-resistant arabica varieties is anticipated to strengthen manufacturing with out increasing planted space.
Consumption Rises with Rising Cafe Tradition
Home consumption is forecast to rise to three.17 million luggage in 2026/27, together with 1.35 million luggage of roasted espresso and 1.82 million luggage of soluble espresso. Soluble espresso stays the dominant format, representing roughly 57% of consumption.
FAS mentioned development is being supported by retail espresso outlets, ready-to-drink espresso, premium espresso developments and on-line entry to specialty espresso manufacturers. The report additionally cited Starbucksโ plan to achieve 1,000 shops in Mexico in 2026.
Commerce and Coverage
Espresso exports are forecast to fall about 1% 12 months over 12 months to three.41 million 60-kilogram luggage in 2026/27, as manufacturing positive aspects are anticipated to be partly absorbed by home consumption. The US stays the first vacation spot for Mexican espresso in all types.
Imports are forecast to fall 4% to 2.43 million luggage as increased native robusta manufacturing reduces demand for imported inexperienced espresso.
The Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Growth, often called SADER, continues to run coffee-specific producer help packages. Its Manufacturing for Wellbeing program offered $388 per producer per 12 months to 181,364 espresso producers in 2026, masking 216,306 hectares.
The report additionally cited Cafรฉ Bienestar, a program run by Mexicoโs Secretariat of Wellbeing that buys espresso from producers in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz and Guerrero on the market by way of government-backed Bienestar shops. This system is estimated to symbolize 3-4% of the nationโs soluble espresso market.
